The PAGE21 project has now been officially closed. The four years of research came to an end on October 31 2015, leaving only...
PAGE21 project was featured in a plenary session "Permafrost in the 21st century" at the 2015 Arctic Circle conference in Reykjavik,...
The 2nd GTN-P National Correspondents Workshop, held in Quebec, Canada, 19-20 September 2015, accomplished the data policy and...
Work Package 7
WP 7: Assessment of Arctic permafrost future vulnerability and feedback to the climate system
Using CMIP5 climate change simulations, the Improved Dynamic Global Vegetation Models will be used in an offline mode to estimate the likelihood of permafrost destabilisation and release of CO2 and/or CH4 to the atmosphere. The simulated carbon balance will also be used to re-evaluate compatible emission scenarios and thus assess the risk of not achieving stabilization.
Global climate model simulations will be performed to assess the change in permafrost dynamics and its feedback to the global climate. Contributions from biophysical feedback (via, e.g., snow, vegetation cover), and from biogeochemical feedback (via CO2 and CH4 emissions) will be identified. Coupled simulations beyond 2100, extending to 2300, will be performed to assess the risk of irreversible climate change linked to permafrost dynamics.
WP Coordinator:
University of Exeter
Principal Investigator:
Pierre Friedlingstein
Collaborators:
- Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble
- Max-Planck-Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften e.V.
- Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies alternatives
- Met Office, UK
